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July 15, 2010

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Anonymous

Oh yeah. And you believe Rasmussens numbers. They dont produce accurate results. Paul is down by more than what Rasmussen said.

The Interesting Times

One more observation about Ron Pauls primary chances:With 21 states polled already, Paul has thus far failed to win outright in a single state primary--not even his home state of Texas, nor Kentucky where his son crushed Grayson in the Republican Senate Primary. Even Palin managed to win two states outright.

The Interesting Times

Look, heres the reality of Ron Pauls situation...Ive been keeping a rough estimate of the number of delegates each Republican Presidential primary candidate would win for the 2012 Republican National Convention, based on PPPs state-by-state primary polls. I have not taken into account district-level delegate allocation, but based on a few assumptions Ive made some reasonable guesses; modeling winner-take-all states, on the other hand, is straightforward. I would be surprised if my delegate estimates were off by more than ten or twenty percent.Based on the 21 states I have data for so far, here are the statuses of the five potential candidates PPP has consistently polled:Romney is the frontrunner with an estimated 489 delegates, 171 more than the next strongest competitor. This is with most of Romneys strongest states (in the Northeast) still unpolled.The second tier of candidates consists of Huckabee with 318 delegates and Gingrich with 263 delegates--a margin of 55 between them. Any large winner-take-all state could put Gingrich out in front, or alternately widen Huckabees lead; likewise with a series of smaller winner-take-all states or a series of states with proportional allocation. A healthy winning streak could conceivably put either of these candidates ahead of Romney.Palin is basically the lone inhabitant of the third tier, with 163 delegates--100 behind the weakest of the second-tier candidates. She could end up as a spoiler or even a kingmaker, but its unlikely that she would win the nomination.Which brings us to Ron Paul coming in dead last with a mere 17 delegates. Paul more or less constitutes a fourth tier, along with the no-name candidates with little to no name recognition that PPP tends to include as wild cards. As such, he has practically no chance of winning the nomination, or even playing the spoiler for that matter.

Abuelita

Glad to see Mike Huckabee gaining recognition. PLEASE take some time to read his books and look at his record--this guy is the real deal, and if anyone can fix the mess wes in, its Huckabee. I hope he runs in 2012.

The Interesting Times

Anonymous:Except, you know, when PPP found that he had 11% support in a GOP primary just several months ago.OK, correct my original post to say Ron Paul has never gotten over 11% in a primary poll. Its still a pretty good reason not to bother including him every time. Im sure there are other questions that would be less of a waste of pollsters time.PPP also had said that Ron Paul would be permanently in these polls.I recall them saying Paul would be permanently included in the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary polls. I dont think they ever said anything about including him in all Presidential polls, especially not in light of the fact that he consistently registers like a fourth-tier candidate in primary polls.

H. Cheadle

Jesus, the Paul People come out in force when they feel a slight. He really has basically zero chance to win a national election. He might be a great guy (I like him better than any of the other GOPers), but hes not going to get a hint of the oval office ever.

Non Paul

I thought all you Ron Paul cultists went back underground after the GOP primary in 2008. Arent you too busy refusing to use dollars (not backed by gold, after all) to comment here?

Anonymous

This poll is stupid...Time Poll has him way up with higher approval numbers...while this one released on the same day has even Newt beating Obama...lolIt seems someone is screwing with the polls to fit their narrative.

Anonymous

Is anyone REALLY surprised that Obama is just as bad as Bush, except for the areas in which hes worse?I notice one of the most popular potential presidential candidates, Dr. Ron Paul, was left off the poll. I wonder if theyre just scared hed do too well, or if theyre still ignoring the fact that Ron Paul has millions (and millions) of Americans supporting his ideas of liberty and sound money?

Anonymous

I cant call up the complete study doc - says file is broken. Something must be broken if the poll puts Palin at a tie with Obama! Take your partisan blinders off kids, Obama is doing a great job under the circumstances.

Anonymous

Romney doesnt surprise me. With the economy getting worse, not better, and the gulf oil debacle, the country is hungry for someone with any executive experience at all to run it.

Anonymous

Ron Paul conspicuously absent from the polls again, although without him this movement wouldnt have gotten started.Amazing.

Will

Where the hell is Ron Paul?!

Anonymous

What is the point in doing a poll without Ron Paul on it? pretty much the only politician left worth voting for...

Anonymous

RON PAUL 2012!

Anonymous

Ron Paul 2012.Nuff said.

Anonymous

Ron Paul has a much greater chance than Newt Gingrich of winning a general election. Mitt Romney has little chance as well -- so to not include Ron Paul but Jan whatever is wrong.

Anonymous

This polling was obviously a bad job. Where is Ron Paul who Rasmussen had as the highest rate against Obama for 2012. Who won the CPAC OR SLC (polling was shut off prematurely, dr. paul wouldve won it)? I think this polling was a crap job and from now on should have Dr. Paul be a top tiered candidate, especially since he outraised candidates in 2008.If he isnt covered, only PPP has itself to blame when nobody cares what it posts due to the slant of reporting.

Anonymous

Obama will win the Democratic nomination because nobody likes any of the Democrats right now, but he has name recognition and can turn out the minority vote. Plus all those who voted for him in 2008 dont want to admit what a horrible POTUS he is and have to experience the cognitive dissonance associated with it. Ron Paul is the only Republican, let alone the only candidate at all, who can beat Obama. He understands economics, monetary policy, foreign policy, and hes the only honest man or woman in Washington. The world will be a much better place with Dr. Paul in the white house. To the guy who said Paul shouldnt have been included in the poll b/c he has no name recognition, the last poll (Rasmussen BTW) that matched him with Obama had him only one point below.

Anonymous

Shows to go you: crafting good policies is a thankless job.

Charles

Uhh Ron Paul please. Its not a real poll if you dont include all the participants. He won that straw poll, that should count. Im voting for him if I get a chance to and the media doesnt completely ignore him.

Anonymous

Wheres Ron Paul in the poll. You seriously cant leave him out. He won the Republican straw poll, remember/

Anonymous

Hes never gotten over 10% in a primary poll.Except, you know, when PPP found that he had 11% support in a GOP primary just several months ago.PPP also had said that Ron Paul would be permanently in these polls.Hopefully, when they do a GOP primary poll next, he will be in it.

Anonymous

Ron Paul wont be getting more than 10% if he even runs.

The Interesting Times

Ron Paul is a fourth-tier candidate. Hes never gotten over 10% in a primary poll. He wont be the Republican nominee.Thats probably why they didnt bother including him in this poll.

Anonymous

Ahem, I think that you left out our next President, Dr. Ron Paul.

Anonymous

The only possible candidate who offers an alternative platform is Ron Paul. Otherwise who cares? The incumbent and challengers all have the same policies; its just a personality contest unless we are offered an actual choice to roll back federal power over us, end war, and salvage what remains of the economy.

Anonymous

You omitted the gorilla in the corner, Dr. Ron Paul. Worthless poll.

Anonymous

Seriously a poll without Ron Paul, is completely worthless. He is far better organized for 2012 and has a bigger following then in 2008.

Anonymous

Mitt Romney, just another Massachusetts RINO. In his own words - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9IJUkYUbvIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jzno_apP1Qhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pVqZzHm3Z4http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kk1bJOpYUqEAnd then there’s RomneyCare, which isn’t much different than ObamaCare.

Anonymous

What? I dont even know who Jan Brewer is. Why isnt Ron Paul included in this?

Anonymous

Anon, Ron Paul? Why bother polling him every month? They polled him a couple months ago and he was unknown by most of the county and thus lost.

SteveMT

They forgot Ron Paul. You know, the candidate that can raise $6M in a day and who really will end to the wars.

Gerald

Where is Ron Paul?

Anonymous

Just curiously, if we were to re-weight the Obama/Romney numbers to the actual 08 Obama/McCain vote, youd still get an exceedingly close race: Obama 46, Romney 45.

Anonymous

Without Ron Paul, this is a meaningless poll.

The Interesting Times

As I noted previously, no sitting President with approval below 51% has been reelected since 1948. Moreover, since 1948, no nominee from the sitting Presidents party has been reelected when the sitting President had approval below 51%.Still, much depends on the outcome of this Novembers elections. Clintons approval rating starting to increase consistently only after the Republican opposition gained control of Congress in the 1994 election.

Christian Liberty

J, the economy improved under Reagan (and would have improved even more if the tax cuts would have gone into effect right away, rather than been delayed so long) while the economy got worse under Obama. Every decision Obama has made has made the economy worse. Americans are intelligent enough to notice that Obama is ruining this great nation.

Anonymous

One word, one number Mike Huckabee 2012

Sean

It looks like the Public Relations arm for the Democrat Party is not doing their job very well. Of course, we all know who is the PR Agency that drives the Democrat Party: The Mainstream Media. The MSM is simply not doing their job. Time to find another PR agency. Maybe, government funding of the MSM and/or the fairness doctrine should do the trick. Or just keeping screaming, GOP is the party of racists. Yeah, pull the race card. Oh I forgot, the NAACP is pulling that old boring trick again.

Michael Koplow

Well, whats the margin of error here? He trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45. Trails? These are all pretty short trails. Smaller than most margins of error. If these trailings are less than the margin of error, then these are all ties.

Anonymous

As an independent voter, I know that I want the opportunity to vote for Sarah Palin simply out of spite for the unchecked misogyny women have endured for the last 2 1/2 years.

Anonymous

lacking strong political voice right now Yeah - to my point - these political points are best made by a clear/strong political voice - not an elected. Chairman Dean comes to mind. FACTS BE DAMMED - The press continues to spread the vapid notion that Dems are for deficits, weak on defense, and now they fall all over themselves to speak the word socialist. Of course they are trying to keep it stirred up so they make money.

Anonymous

Of course.Obama is a pretty bad president.

Anonymous

Lacking a strong political voice right now... Righhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhht. Because the President, VicePresident,Speaker and Senate Majority leader just dont get the attention they used to.... Sorry, thats dumb. As is the idea that the mainstream press is a tool of the GOP.Obamas in a public opinion trough right now. Thats undeniable, but irrellevent for 2012. A lot can happen in two years, and a helluva lot depends on the mid-terms. Far too early to even BEGIN thinking about 2012, let alone making predictions.

DCCyclone

JCordes, Gallup in January 1983, after the 1982 midterms, had Mondale beating Reagan 52-40, and John Glenn beating Reagan by even more.

b

Anybody would be better.

AKaizer

Even though these numbers are looking bad now, I simply cannot imagine any of those candidates actually beating Obama. We are unfortunately, it seems, at a point where Obama just has really poor ratings and the Republicans have really good ones that probably slant the opinion too strongly towards the Republican end. I would think post-Midterms that if the numbers dont approve (and indeed, a year before the election) that...there might be problems, but once this election cycle goes through and less attention is paid for a year, the economy approves, certain portions of major laws get enacted (etc. etc.) we will see Obama reclaim better values.

Anonymous

Obama is the biggest joke!

Anonymous

What a joke. Obama will wax any of those idiots. It wont even be close.

Anonymous

Is this poll of registered voters or likely voters?

Anonymous

Hey Tom - Amazing what 2 years of the mainstream press spiting out GOP talking points can do. Seems like the Dems are lacking a strong political voice right now - e.g. party chair. On the bright side - didnt Obama come from behind against John and Sarah?

JCordes

Werent there polls in 1982 showing that Reagan was certain to go down to defeat?

Anonymous

Its possible well look back on polls like this...Im pretty sure that no matter what happens, nobodys going to remember this silly little poll. Polls like this arent just limited. Theyre useless. Theyre distractions for slow news days, and with all the REAL problems our nations facing, slow news days oughtta be few and far between.

Anonymous

I would think that educated Americans would realize that poll numbers only count on election day. Also, all this criticism of Obama is running in three veins. 1) most Americans are not educated enough about how the political process and legislative process works behind closed doors, 2) Americans are video game programmed for instant results regardless of the depth and severity of the challenge at hand, and 3) many Americans who are Independent or Republican and even now some Dems are taking their positions based on racial dislike of an African American being their President. Sad, but awfully true.The other troubling thing is that when you have the smartest kid in the room as President, the not so smart try to bring him down at all costs.....troubling and regretful. We should all be ashamed of how we shape our perceptions about when ANY president is or is not doing a good job.

Anonymous

Is it possible that Pres. Obamas seemingly high poll numbers (higher than the Ds or Rs or Congress) are nothing more than a Bradley Effect, where people are not willing to tell a stranger that they dont support an African American president?

Anonymous

Obama has Corruptly got into Office, has Cowardly Intimidated the People of the USA. He has done more harm in 18 Months than any other President in over 230 YEARS. Im not a Racist or a Radical. Im an American!

Tribefull

Uh, include Jan Brewer but exclude Ron Paul? Worthless poll.Dr Paul would have done at LEAST 17% in the primary if the media hadnt blackballed him.

Anonymous

Where did you guys get your diplomas, NRO?

Anonymous

WOW dont you think this was worth mentioning in the post? Or were you trying to get on Fox?Q12 Who did you vote for President last year?John McCain.........................45%Barack Obama........................46%Someone else/dont remember ....................... 9%

zororiver | strategy games

everybody put too much hope on Obama

Anonymous

My aunt Daisy could beat Oblahblah !

Anonymous

The important point of this poll is the favorabilities.. Not only that Huckabee is the only one with positive favorability but the level of the his positive numbers in comparison to the others. +9 for him when the next nearest is Romney at -1. Palin at -15 is very telling. The fact that Huckabee is now setting up for weekly shows on top of his hit weekend show is evidence of how well he is being recieved by the American people and will also increase his name recognition even more. Think about how well he did in 2008 with no recognition and no money.

Anonymous

If Obama goes down in flames, America will be the better for it.

Pat

Tea Party elections of 2010 show that America is hungry for mainstream voting, something it hasnt had in several years, more as a retreat to sanity rather than search for false hope.

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