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May 12, 2010


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KY-Dem is more important. SUSA has Mongiardo only up by 1 pt. Paul has big lead. although its not very relevant who the Dem nominee will be because its extremely hard to believe that Kentucky will elect a Dem to senate in 10 after giving McCain 58%.


Ron Paul was with-in the margin of Error for Obama too.


Why wouldnt you do KY-DEM? Polls have Paul expanding his lead so why focus on this race?


I think Obama will perform significantly *worse* than he polls right now when the 2012 election campaign actually begins.Much of his advantage right now is simply due to the fact that hes an extremely well-known incumbent running against an uncertain pick from a gaggle of lesser-known potential opponents.That advantage will decrease when the GOP finally settles on an opponent for him and the GOP candidate starts campaigning against him in earnest.


There has been a significant amount of Senatorial polling and it shows that incumbents are in trouble, with Democrats in the most trouble. There has been scant little House polling. When you do one of these Senate polls could you do multiple House races in a state to provide a broader picture? There are a number of good races in PA and a couple in KY.


For the GOP field, we have 2 tiers. The first tier has Romney & Huckabee, who are within the margin of error with Obama. Then you have the 2nd tier containing Newt & Palin. The 2nd tier has consistently lagged behind Obama by 7-9 points for the past 6 months. April appears to have been a fluke.

Tom Jensen

Too much to ask for all but we will do PA-12 and KY GOP.

Brandon K

Is it too much to ask for an Arkansas, Pennsylvania, PA-12, and Kentucky poll this weekend?


The 2012 polling is back to normal in May. In April, PPP had all Republicans within the margin of error. Was the April polling just a fluke?


Obama is only beating a weak field by a few points, mainly because people dont think much of the Republicans. What if the Republicans actually find a candidate people like? There are a number of dark horses that people dont know. There probably wont be one with Palins charisma, Huckabees sense of humor, Gingrichs smarts, and Romney financial expertise. But then no one knew all that Obama had to sell America in May 2006.


Hey, how about polling Mississippi ?It has never been polled since the 2008 election.


Gary Johnson?????


Given the fact that there hasnt been a single Republican that has of yet publicly announced his/her candidacy in running for the Presidency in 2012, the numbers that you have come up with are of little, if any, meaningful value. After all, 21/2 years is still a long ways off. All one has to do is to think back to 2006 when Barack Obama was barely on the radar screen, to realize just how premature this poll is. In fact, in August of 2007 Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton 25%-45% (-20), in a C.B.S News poll. Get it? As for Sarah Palin, I very seriously doubt that she will, in fact, be running for the presidency. And if she did, I am absolutely convinced that she wouldnt stand a chance in being nominated-PERIOD! In fact, you can, for all practical purposes, remove her from the list of viable presidential candidates. Beyond Palin, its any ones guess as to who will ultimately emerge as the front runner for the Republican Partys nomination. But I will say this; who ever it is that finally gets nominated, Republicans and conservatives alike will almost unanimously coalesce in support that candidate. Count on it!

Christian Liberty

Obama loses to someone elsehttp://politipage.com/2010/05/10/someone-else-tops-obama-46-42-in-latest-poll-of-u-s-jewish-voters-after-winning-78-in-08/

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