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March 23, 2010

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DBL

As I bet Tom will confirm there is nothing amiss about Rasmussens surveys. In many cases, however, theyve been weighting Republicans heavier than other pollsters. They are one of the few pollsters that uses a Likely Voter screen. Some of the skew can be attributed to that. Rasmussens model ended up being spot on in New Jersey and Massachusetts. To dismiss Rasmussens polls out of hand behind because you dont like the result shows ignorance of polling. If Rasmussen continues to be right in their likely voter formula in upcoming special elections other pollsters will adjust their model. Determining the enthusiasm gap will be one of the big challenges for pollsters this year.

DBL

Its half a great answer. While WPRI is different, Rasmussen is Thompson +2, with a 4.5% margin of error. Given the PPP polls margin of error Rasmussen and PPP could be identical. The biggest difference in most polls has to do with weighting. PPP has given the Republicans less of an enthusiasm gap than some other pollsters. I believe PPP overweights Democrats and underweights Republicans. I believe a state that is 35% Democrat 32% Republican will vote 35% Republican 32% Democrat this year. Clearly Tom doesnt.Since Thompson isnt actually running I think we can give him a little flexibility here.

xoff

Rasmussen and WPRI are non-partisan? Au contraire. WPRI is run by a bunch of former Thompson staffers, and Rasmussen is a Republican firm.

Anonymous

Rasmussen non-partisan? You are good making me laugh :))The last months Rasmussen gives crazy numbers for very much states, and WI is one of their first targets (as are PA, IL, MI, CO or MN).But now I have not problem with Rasmussen polls because I decide ignore all they.One friend in Swing State Project call Rasmussen PINO (Pollster in name only). And he is just right.

Rasmus

Oh my god, just look up if they contributed to him on opensecrets.orgIts not THAT hard, is it?

DonSurber

I am a conservative but that is a great answer Tom

Tom Jensen

I really love being lectured on transparency by an anonymous commenter. Why dont you have the guts to post your name on your screeds and then maybe we can talk.

Anonymous

Another PPP poll conflicting with non-partisan polling. Every WPRI and Rasmussen poll has shown Thompson leading, with good favorable ratings. PPP is the only poll showing Thompson trailing, with negative(!) favorability.Doesnt pass the smell test.Has the management of PPP contributed to Feingolds campaign? Dooes PPP have a business relationship with Feingold?Full disclosure, please.

Christian Liberty

Rasmussen is one of the most accurate polls around. For leftists to try to PRETEND otherwise is just laughable.

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