A lot of Democratic Congressmen in districts won by John McCain are in big trouble this year. Dan Boren doesn't appear to be one of them.
Boren is the first Democratic member of Congress we've found with an approval rating over 50% since we polled on Mark Warner back in October. 51% of his constituents like the job he's doing to just 33% who disapprove of it.
Boren holds large leads over a quartet of Republican opponents with minimal name recognition. He's up 44-28 on Daniel Edmonds, 45-25 on Charles Thompson, 48-26 on Howard Houchen, and 49-22 on Dan Arnett. Independent Miki Booth, an avowed 'birther,' receives 7-8% of the vote in each of those match ups. Only 18-21% of the voters have an opinion about any of the Republican candidates, suggesting that the race does have the potential to tighten once the candidates become better known. Nevertheless this race doesn't appear to be remotely among the GOP's top pickup opportunities.
Boren's continuing to be successful despite the highly conservative nature of his district. Barack Obama's approval rating is a 27/65 spread, with even Democrats disapproving of him by a 42/47 margin. This is the first place we've ever found Obama's numbers in negative territory within his own party. Only 17% of voters in the district, including just 29% of Democrats, support the Democratic health care plan.
Even though Boren has voted against a large number of major Democratic initiatives, 31% of his constituents still think he's too liberal. That perception may be based in some part on misinformation though- 32% of voters think he supported the health care bill while only 30% correctly identify that he voted against it.
On the whole Boren's clearly done a good job of differentiating how his constituents feel about him personally from how they feel about his party. 70% of his district disapproves of the job Congressional Democrats are doing. But most of them are planning to vote for him anyway.
Full results here