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February 15, 2010


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This makes me thinking Elaine Marshall really hopes Cunningham wins the democrat primary and vice versa.


Bayh gets to keep the $13,000,000.00 from his warchest doesnt he ? Id do the same thing to be able to keep donated campaign funds.


R2K hasnt been out of line with other live-interviewer polls (e.g. Gallup), on Presidential approval or on much else: live-interviewer polls this cycle may have a social desirability bias (not the same thing as an intentional partisan bias) that unintentionally screens out Tea Party respondents, which is one reason why PPP is about the only pollster that looks trustworthy right now (theyre transparent, they use robocalls and they certainly arent partisan Republicans, quite the reverse).Bayh would have had a real campaign on his hands, and maybe he didnt feel like conducting one-- remember, this is a second-generation Senator, one who in some ways inherited his seat, rather than somebody who just loves campaigning (hes also someone who can easily find a DC lobbying job if he wants to stay in DC). Still quite a surprise, and a disappointment. I too see Republicans taking back the Senate; if Dems hold on, its 51-49, with Lieberman and Nelson breaking in favor of the Republicans on anything really interesting, and Ill start to wonder whether the White House would actually prefer to have Republicans seize nominal control-- at least that would put a stop to the Dems have all the power and cant do anything narratives, which, at the moment, look like the unadorned truth.

Ben (The Tiger in Exile)

Run for the hills!

Christian Liberty

Further evidence that the Research 2000 polls have been biased in favor of the Democrats. (Daily Kos-Research 2000 polls still try to claim that Obamas approval ratings are 56%?!?) Bayhs retirement also means that the 8th district and/or 9th district may open up as Hill and/or Ellsworth may run for the open Senate seat. But the deadline for submitting candidates petitions is Tuesday Feb 16. Bayhs decision has left the party little time for contingency planning. Something in the polls really spooked him.


Christian Liberty,DKos polls dont claim Obamas approval ratings are 56%. His FAVORABILITY RATINGS are 56%. If one is unable to read the basic metrics of a poll, one maybe shouldnt comment on a polling blog...


isnt this lobbyist position being vacated the real reason for bayh dropping out?http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/12/health/policy/12pharma.html


If the GOP can get Pataki to run against Gillbrand, Rossi against Murray and Thompson against Feingold they will regain control of the Senate. For each of these that does not happen, the odds drop considerably. Without these three, they need California just to get a tie and that is very iffy at this point.

Christian Liberty

It is strange that Daily Kos/R2000 only asks about Obamas favorability instead of job approval. Maybe they dont want to know how poorly America thinks of Obamas job approval.

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