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November 04, 2009

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Russ' 'n' 'Lex

The lesson there is that the new voters will come back out- with a good candidate. Foxx was a good candidate. Creigh Deeds in Virginia and Jon Corzine in New Jersey were not.good candidate or black candidate?

Steve

Thank you, too. I was all hopeful for Corzine until I saw the split between IVR and live-interviewer polling, and IVR turned out to be right. As for NY-23, nobody called that one correctly: not really a black eye for PPP.Were your turnout predictions correct in Maine? I read that the Maine SoS was expecting 35% of RVs and got 50%; maybe you were expecting 50% as well.The Charlotte race suggests that the Obama turnout machine really might reappear in 2010, at least if we can point to accomplishments by then. If not, and if the economy stays flat on Main Street (as seems likely), then 2010 will indeed be a rough year for Dems.

Anonymous

So does this mean that all of your negative comments about Palin are out the window as well?

Balkan Update

Well, you knew all the facts about N-23 and yet you were making a strong prediction that Huffman was going to win big (17 points) as late as Monday. Well he lost by 5%, which means you were way off the mark by 22% points. Thats one of the worst results I have ever seen from any pollster in recent memory. You should seriously re-consider your methodologies ( on Monday you claimed your polling found no change after the R candidate endorsed Owen). As far as NJ and Main, those were close races and the end result was close to the margin of error with most pollsters, so even though you predicted them right there is nothing to be proud about here. It wasnt a weird night for PPP, it was a very bad night. No way to sugarcoat it.

Rasmus

Chapel Hill was a three-point race though. But yeah, you did pretty well, and I dont think that anyone (well, except die-hard partisans) is going to hold NY-23 against you.

Bluejoy

On NY-23, told ya so. Would you like to know how I knew?

Elliot

Tom,I wouldnt take the NY-23 numbers too hard, that was a wild and crazy race and even the best of pollsters have an occasional crazy race. Plus, you guys are probably among the few who actually own up to your mistakes, there are way too many people who dont do that!

Aaron Ring

Congrats on a good night.You cant win them all, and its refreshing to see a pollster own up to his/her mistakes. It is not obvious that PPP really did anything obtusely wrong-- it is likely that Rep.-elect Owens really was 17 points behind before Scozzafavas endorsement sank in with voters. However-- I agree that, under the circumstances, it may have been best to pull the poll.PPP remains my favorite polling outfit-- see you in 2010!

SluggahJells

Great job Tom.....

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