Our early August poll in Virginia found that 60% of McCain voters and 42% of Obama voters were coming out for Governor this year. We surmised Creigh Deeds would have to get that up to 55% of Obama voters to have any chance.
If the exit polls were right he got it up to...43% of Obama voters over the last three months while 59% of McCain voters turned out. So although there was some shifting in September, the ultimate outcome was basically unchanged from August.
To put that into hard numbers 1.1 million Obama voters didn't come out this year while only 715,000 McCain voters stayed home.
That's scary as heck for next year. The big question is how much of that is natural and how much of that is just Deeds' fault. It will be a while before that answers becomes clear.