Marriage still close in Maine

Maine voters narrowly favor Question 1, which would reverse the state's law legalizing same sex marriage.

At 51-47 it's within the margin of error but there has been slight movement in support of the question since a PPP poll two weeks ago showed it knotted up at 48.

The measure's fate could be determined by the age composition of the electorate on Tuesday. Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48. Last year exit polls showed more voters under 30 turning out for the Presidential election than ones over 65 but we expect seniors to turn out at a much higher rate than younger voters this year, as is often the case in off year elections. If the electorate ends up being younger than we anticipate the fight could be even closer.

Independents support the measure 52-46. There are slightly more Democrats (27%) in favor of it than there are Republicans (22%) opposed to it. Men support it by a 56-42 margin, women are opposed 52-46. It's just going to come down to which side does the better job of getting its people out.

On Question 4, which is the Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR 2), the outcome is more clear. 57% of voters are opposed to it with just 39% in favor. 76% of Democrats, 53% of independents, and even 39% of Republicans say they will vote against it and it's safe to say it has no chance with that level of opposition from the GOP.

Full results here

Comments

[Anonymous]

Whenever gay marriage is up for a vote it will lose, especially right now. Theres a conservative air in the land, and since Im a conservative, I am enjoying it.

[Anonymous]

Christie will end COAH Christie will end COAH . If you dont know what COAH is well its a mandate requiring all countys to build low income housing. Its forcing towns to build on open space. Its a complete disaster and if you Vote for Christie he will end it. VOTE CHRISTIE and save youre town

[thg]

Senior citizens support it by a 59-40 margin while voters under 30 oppose it 51-48.Support means want to repeal a same-sex marriage law. A Yes vote is a no vote for same-sex marriage and a No vote is a vote in support of same-sex marriage.I do not know what the exact wording of this survey question was, but previous polls have been ambiguous (in my opinion) with a yes response to the survey question indicating support for gay marriage -- the opposite of what a yes vote will mean on election day.

[Anonymous]

@Christian, not according to Nate Silver, who offers some comfort to No on 1 supporters here:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/2009-elections-preview-maine-question-1.htmlHe says none of the pollsters included cellphones, and this poll is included in his analysis.

[Christian]

Did this poll included mobile phone numbers in Maine or just landline phones?

[Anonymous]

@ Anonymous said... Voters under 30 oppose it by only 51-48? If thats the case, this wont be even close.Unfortunately voters under 30 dont vote in the same numbers as those above 30.

[Anonymous]

interesting how gay marriage is FAVORED by the 46-65 age group

[Anonymous]

Voters under 30 oppose it by only 51-48? If thats the case, this wont be even close.

[Anonymous]

If the LGBT community loses in Maine, I will be working to get all my gays to get a gun and sign up for member ship in the NRA. I think they will listen better when we all have AK47s.Too bad it may come to that but whatever it takes to get my civil rights. Unrest, burn whatever we need to.

[Anonymous]

I truly believe that full civil rights will never be gained by gays until we start showing some civil unrest as the African-Americans did in the 60s. Lets burn a few cities. Then theyll listen!

[Anonymous]

The people have spoken.They have spoken in favor of morality, of decency, and for our children.It just goes to show you that they are enough Americans out there smart enough to not buy this civil rights line. Its a load of BS. The issue at stake is the definition of marriage.You also need to take into account that the pro-gay activists outspent those defending marriage by 2 to 1. Thank you everyone who voted Yes in Maine.