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November 04, 2009

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Anonymous

Careful. You totally botched NY-23 and were off badly in terms of measuring the Presidents approval rating in NJ (you had 47%), exits showed it to be a much healthier 57%.Looks to me like you just weighted better in NJ than some others.Also means we should take your and -- and Rasmussens -- coverage of the Presidents approval rating with a heavy dose of salt until you figure out what youre doing wrong.

Rational J

Do you call cell-phone only households? Could that be the reason for the + R advantage you found in your polls?

Tom Jensen

Im sure its some sort of methodological difference between exit polling and IVR. Ask Blumenthal to figure it out.

Russ

So then how do you explain the discrepancy between the vote number and the approval numbers?Christie beat Corzine among a group of voters who have a 45% approval of the President.Or:Christie beat Corzine among a group of voters who have a 57% approval of the President.I think thats fairly significant and should be looked into.

Tom Jensen

Russ,I dont think you understand poll weighting. The entire poll gets weighted, not just the horse race. In our last poll Christie was up 47-41 with a group of voters giving Obama a 45% approval rating. If we had found a 57% approval rating for Obama the Corzine/Christie numbers probably would have been reversed.

Russ

No need to cherry pick. Its kind of a no-brainer that Id trust the final wave of exit polls over any survey done before the election.Oh and I made a mistake, it appears. Your final poll for NJ had the Presidents approval at 45%. A lot of the rest of your internals were flaky as well. Sorry, but thats an issue that should be looked at. If you dont feel that way well, oh well. Not much I can do about it. If all you care about is the final result, then why release the other sample questions/all internals?

Tom Jensen

Assuming that the exit poll was correct on Obamas approval and we werent when we got the horse race correct is a leap. I dont think were doing anything wrong in measuring his approval, just sounds like youre a poll cherry picker.

Mike Mokrzycki

re Obama job approval in NJ, its hard not to come to the conclusion that PPP was an outlier, whatever the reason. Per data collected at Pollster.com, no other poll in the past month+, IVR or otherwise, had Obama at lower than 52% approve, compared to 45% in the last PPP. I dont buy that only a lower Obama job approval # could explain a Corzine defeat -- with Corzines own approval as low as it was and the reasons for that, he was beyond Obamas help.

Mike Mokrzycki

Not to pick a fight but its a little funny to see Tom allege cherry picking when he omitted any mention of the NY-23 Hoffman leads big debacle. Then again, because I like my cherries with context, that was an awfully volatile situation. And Tom also neglected to mention PPP was the only pollster of any stripe to have Yes at all ahead on the gay-marriage prop in Maine.

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