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September 30, 2009


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Tom, you were supposed to release Obamas Virginia approval rating today. Is it still coming out?Im wondering since Rasmussen has it at 52% (the same poll showing Deeds trailing 51-42).


I began watching the party ID splits with your Sept. 1 poll, to figure why a 14-point McDonnell lead fell to 7-points. If the survey was more Democratic than the August pool, then it makes sense that Deeds was getting closer.Maybe it wasnt the thesis, but just having more Democrats in the pool. Looking forward to your next Virginia poll and the party ID split then.


Interesting that your numbers are going to be worse for Obama than Rasmussen even though Rasmussen shows a greater spread for McDonnell than you do.Somewhat counterintuitive.But SurveyUSA will almost certainly show horrific numbers for Obama.You think Obama would win Virginia today if his disapproval is at 48-50%? He wasnt winning Arizona despite his approval being 47/47 according to your poll (the undecided were also disproportionately represented by McCain voters in the various matchups).


TPM released some interesting data on PARTY ID:SurveyUSA: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 41%, with a ±4% margin of error. The likely electorate is Republicans 32%, Democrats 32%, Independents 29%, and the respondents voted for John McCain in 2008 by 51%-44%.• Rasmussen: McDonnell 51%, Deeds 42%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. The makeup of the likely electorate here is Democrats 43%, Republicans 38%, Independents 19%. Respondents were not asked about their 2008 presidential vote.• Public Policy Polling (D): McDonnell 48%, Deeds 43%. The likely electorate is Democrats 37%, Republicans 29%, Independents 34%, and respondents voted for Barack Obama by 48%-45%.http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/va-gov-race-all-about-likely-voters----and-gotv.php


I figured that would be your response - enthusiasm.But Ill still treat this poll suspiciously as I have with the SurveyUSA poll released yesterday.Also in the other thread, I view any poll where Blacks are more favorable to an unknown like Deeds than Wilder as an outlier.


Good reasoning, Tom. Youre definitely doing a much better job on this race than SUSA or Rasmussen.

Tom Jensen

Republicans identifying more as independents is a long term trend dating back to last year.The reason the Republican id has dropped in the last two months is because Democrats had NO interest in this election over the summer, but are now becoming more engaged. Each poll is a snapshot in time and the early August poll reflected the fact that if the election had been held that day Democratic turnout was going to be completely pathetic. Now thats reverting to a more normal level.


Sorry, I dont buy it. In just about any poll, McDonnell is winning Independents by double-digit margins.To write that in the past two months, Republicans have dropped from 35% to 29% of the sample due to them now describing themselves as Independents doesnt pass the mustard.And nobody is screaming bias, so please stop the whining. The SurveyUSA poll released yesterday is also suspect due to PARTY ID.


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