Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Mike Beebe’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve .......................................................... 63% Disapprove...................................................... 17% Not Sure.......................................................... 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Allen Kerr? If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you're not sure, press 3. Favorable........................................................ 4% Unfavorable .................................................... 8% Not Sure.......................................................... 88%
Our Arkansas poll this week has been mostly bad news for Democrats so far, but here's something positive: Mike Beebe continues to be the most popular of the more than 50 Governors and Senators we've taken an approval rating for across the country so far in 2009.
63% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing with only 17% disapproving. He gets good marks from 76% of Democrats, 59% of independents, and even 50% of Republicans, something very unusual with the current level of polarization in American politics. Another interesting anomaly in his numbers is that at 64% his approval with whites is actually higher than his 58% with African Americans, something we've never found to be the case before with a Democratic politician.
No serious opposition to Beebe for reelection has stepped forward yet, but just to get some idea of how he would match up against a Republican we tested State Representative Allen Kerr. Beebe leads Kerr, who has only 4% positive name recognition, 55-24. Beebe's reelect number running behind his approval number is a function of only 24% of GOP voters saying they would vote for him, even though they approve of the job he's doing.
Arkansas may be a battleground next year, but it seems pretty safe to say that's only because of the Senate race.
Charlie Melancon is in the race for Senate in Louisiana. When we polled him against David Vitter in July he trailed 44-32, but of course when we first polled Kay Hagan against Elizabeth Dole at the same time in the 2007 election cycle she was down 43-27 and went on to a nine point victory. The similarity between those races at this stage is that despite her early lead Dole had some baggage for her opponent to exploit and it's certainly the same case with Vitter.
Beyond that though we have some very interesting data from within that July poll that shows the possibilities for Melancon. Independent voters in Louisiana are some of the most conservative in the country. Barack Obama's approval rating with them is just 30%. And the independent voters in Southeastern Louisiana are even more conservative than the ones statewide- just 21% of them gave the President good marks when we polled there.
Beyond disliking the President, they actually like David Vitter more than the rest of the state does. His favorability with independents there is at 48%, better than his 44% number with the overall electorate.
For all that Melancon led Vitter with independents in that part of the state 50-37 on our poll. It's not a surprise- those are the same folks who have made it possible for him to serve three terms in Congress from a strongly Republican leaning district- and their support for him appears to be transferring to a statewide bid at this point.
The big question then is whether Melancon can translate the success he's had with those folks statewide- if conservative Democrats and independents in places like Monroe and Alexandria will find him as appealing as those in his Congressional District have. And also of course whether he can win over those folks while also generating enough enthusiasm from black voters to ensure that they turn out in an off year election.
Melancon certainly starts as an underdog, but he's shown he can find a path to victory in places where it's not easy for Democrats before.
I think there is a possibility- remote but real- that 2010 could be a Republican year and Richard Burr would still lose. That ties in with the 'bad year to be an incumbent regardless of party' theory I talked about a few weeks ago.
Here's some statistical data on that in North Carolina: 9% of voters in the state disapprove of both Kay Hagan and Richard Burr's job performance- those voters not surprisingly also give Barack Obama a 35% approval rating and only 12% like Bev Perdue. So these are the voters who basically don't like anybody.
They're a Republican leaning lot. 53% of them say they voted for John McCain last year to just 36% picking Barack Obama, and 45% are conservatives.
These folks should be Burr voters- only 28% of them support the President on health care. But they prefer a generic Democrat to him 52-28, and Cal Cunningham and Kevin Foy lead him in head to head contests.
These folks are just mad in general and rather than taking it out on the party in control, they're taking it out on the person they can control, which in this case just happens to be Burr. I don't know if they'll keep that attitude all the way until November 2010- they might decide to support Burr as the lesser of two evils- but they could swing a close election. They're certainly a group we'll be watching as this contest unfolds.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln’s job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve .......................................................... 36% Disapprove...................................................... 44% Not Sure.......................................................... 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gilbert Baker? If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Favorable........................................................ 7% Unfavorable .................................................... 15% Not Sure.......................................................... 78%
Gilbert Baker is viewed favorably by 7% of voters in Arkansas. For Curtis Coleman it's 6% and Tom Cotton it's 4%.
The immediate conclusion from those numbers would logically be that Republicans have no chance of beating Blanche Lincoln for reelection in Arkansas. But in a state where the President has the support of less than 30% of the electorate on health care anything's possible right now and despite their virtually nonexistent name recognition Baker, Coleman, and Cotton are all in statistical ties with Lincoln in potential head to head contests.
Lincoln polls at 40% against all three of the Republicans. Baker and Coleman lead her with 42 and 41% respectively, while Cotton trails with 39%.
The numbers of course are more a reflection on Lincoln's standing than that of the Republicans. Her approval rating is now 36%, with 44% of voters in the state disapproving of the job she's doing. That's a 13 point downward shift in her net approval rating, from 45/40 when we measured it in March. That largely tracks the 18 point decline in the President's popularity over that time.
Lincoln's approval rating is 14% with Republicans and she only gets 9% of the GOP vote in the head to head contests, that's no surprise. Her bigger problems are with Democrats and independents.
Among all Democrats her approval is a relatively weak 62%. But among conservative Democrats it's just 45%. While liberal unrest about her actions in Washington has perhaps received more attention her approval with them is 24 points higher, at 69%. Matched against the Republicans Lincoln averages just a 57-25 advantage with the conservative wing of her party, a standing she'll probably need to improve on before next November.
Although the dissatisfaction of liberals within her party may not be as a big of a numerical concern for Lincoln as the conservatives, there are some issues there as well. Her approval rating among voters who think that Obama is doing a good job is just 63% with 21% disapproving and 16% unsure. That failure to win over many of Obama's proponents is an indication that the President's unpopularity in the state can't be held completely responsible for Lincoln's difficulties. She does nevertheless win nearly 80% in the head to heads with the Republicans because she's clearly a more acceptable choice for those voters than the alternative but then the concern in an off year election becomes whether those folks even show up if they're not enthusiastic about casting a vote for Lincoln.
If Lincoln has perhaps seemed indecisive at times you can see why when she has it coming at her from both ends of her party.
Arkansas has the most conservative independents of any state we've polled in this year and it shows in Lincoln's numbers with that group. Just 27% of them approve of her job performance to 51% disapproving. She has a 21 point deficit in the horse race with that group against Baker and Coleman and a 16 point disadvantage against Cotton.
So what's the bottom line here? Clearly Lincoln could be beaten, but there are several reasons why she might survive too. The first is that none of her potential Republican opponents have shown the ability yet to raise the money to run a strong campaign. Whoever emerges as her opponent is also going to need to be able to keep their foot out of their mouth, something that's been a problem for some potential foes. The second is that Democrats nationally are in a recession right now and that goes a long way toward explaining these numbers. But if the economy starts turning around by this time next year and the folks in power get the credit, all of their folks running for reelection will get lifted up, including Lincoln. Republicans have an opportunity here but it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of it.
It's been pretty clear from the town halls that Barack Obama's detractors are more fired up on health care than his supporters but we have some interesting poll data to back that up now too.
We've asked about this issue on four polls now- a national one and state surveys in Arkansas, Colorado, and North Carolina. On each of those we found that among respondents who approve of the job Obama is doing as President support for him on health care is somewhere in the 70s. In North Carolina it's 79-4, in Colorado 77-7, nationally 75-6, and in Arkansas 73-10. Note that in all four instances 16-19% of his supporters reported having no opinion.
There is no such ambiguity about the President's actions on health care among respondents who disapprove of his overall performance. In Colorado those voters are opposed to him 97-0 on the issue. It's 97-1 in Arkansas, 95-2 in North Carolina, and 95-2 nationally. With these voters only 2-3% have no opinion.
This is one case where scientific data does match the public perception that Republicans are more motivated on this issue.
Here's an interesting finding from our national poll last week: even with the President in a bit of a rough patch he's still more popular with conservative Democrats than any of his potential opponents for 2012 are with moderate Republicans.
69% of conservative Democrats approve of how Obama's doing compared to 17% disapproving.
The best any of the GOP hopefuls do with the moderate wing of their party is Mike Huckabee's 54% favorability rating with 17% viewing him unfavorably. He's followed by Sarah Palin at 53/30, Mitt Romney at 45/20, and Newt Gingrich at 44/29.
It's a similar story with the horse race numbers. The Republicans get 57-63% with their party's moderates with Obama pulling anywhere from 24% against Huckabee to 32% against Palin. Obama gets 67-73% with his party's conservatives while losing anywhere from 17% against Romney to 25% against Huckabee.
If Obama does better with conservative Democrats in 2012 than his eventual opponent does with moderate Republicans, there's very little chance he loses.
-We're polling Virginia this weekend. If you have any ideas for questions we should ask beyond the basic horse race stuff we are open to hearing them.
-Curious that the DNC is running ads propping up Bob Etheridge and Brad Miller...do they need it? Certainly not as far as I know.
-People seemed to be surprised by Blanche Lincoln's poll numbers today...that speaks to the differences in perceptions about states that see frequent public polling and those that do not. If there was a Chris Dodd poll today for the first time in five months people would be shocked by it but since Connecticut gets surveyed all the time we're desensitized to it now. I have a feeling if someone was polling Arkansas every month we probably would have seen this coming to a greater extent.
PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"
