Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Roland Burris’ job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve................. 17% Disapprove............ 62% Not Sure................ 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky? If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Favorable........................................................ 27% Unfavorable .................................................... 23% Not Sure.......................................................... 50%
Lisa Madigan would start out with a strong lead against Republican Gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady, while the contest would be closer if current Governor Pat Quinn was nominated for a full term.
Madigan leads Brady 46-27, with Quinn holding a 39-32 advantage.
Madigan does better than Quinn largely because she is more popular among independents (getting 43% of the vote compared to 34% for Quinn) and Democrats (earning 67% compared to 58%.)
Brady is a blank slate to 61% of voters in the state with 23% holding a favorable opinion of him and 17% having an unfavorable one.
Quinn's overall approval rating is 49% with 27% holding no opinion about him and 25% disapproving of his work so far.
These numbers are artificially close because Quinn and Madigan are both under performing with black voters right now, as Madigan gets 51% and Quinn only 34% of the African American vote at this early point. They probably do each have some work to do to shore up their support with that important Democratic demographic, but those figures are likely to be upwards of at least 80% when election time does come around.
If by some chance Roland Burris was able to win the Democratic nomination for a full Senate term next year, the seat would likely go Republican. Mark Kirk leads him 53-19 in a hypothetical contest.
Burris' approval rating is just 17%, easily the lowest PPP has ever registered for any politician. In the contest against Kirk he gets just 34% even of the Democratic vote and trails 62-8 among independents.
It looks like Kirk has some potential to be competitive even if Burris is not the nominee though. He is tied 35-35 with Alexi Giannoulias in a hypothetical contest and leads Jan Schakowsky 37-33.
Those numbers are a little optimistic for Republicans because in each of those contests more than 30% of Democrats but fewer than 20% of GOP voters are undecided. That is likely a function of the uncertainly about what will happen with this seat next year from the Democrats' end and as that gap closes both Giannoulias and Schakowsky would lead Kirk. He would still be in striking distance though thanks to a double digit lead among independents in both of those contests.
If Lisa Madigan made a surprise decision to run for this seat it would be no contest, as she leads Kirk 49-33.
On our Illinois poll 52% of Republicans said they view Lisa Madigan favorably.
That puts her in company only with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Delaware Governor Jack Markell, Delaware Congressman Mike Castle, and Arkansas Governor Mike Beebe as politicians who we've found are more popular than not with voters of the opposite political party over the last year.
Madigan and Cuomo may well end up having something else in common next year as politicans who were successfully able to primary incumbent Governors of their own party who took office due to scandals.
Daily Kos polled Johnny Isakson and produced pretty similarly mediocre numbers to what we found on him way back in November: a favorability/approval rating barely in positive territory and single digit leads against some opponents who have not shown any interest in running.
I actually think the situation for Isakson is probably worse even than they show. While they have only 12% of Georgians holding no opinion about him one way or the other, we found 45% with no opinion about him. For whatever reason I think the Kos polls tend to overestimate folks' name recognition. For instance they showed 93% of North Carolinians with an opinion of Richard Burr when we find only 65-70% with one and Civitas shows it even lower, around 50%. So I imagine Isakson is a blank slate to many Georgians in addition to having only slightly positive ratings from the ones who do know him.
By the time Democrats realized how vulnerable Saxby Chambliss was last year it was too late to get a real strong candidate- you really have to wonder how someone with a little more charisma than Jim Martin might have fared at the polls in November. Hopefully someone will see this strong opportunity and go for it.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Roland Burris’ job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Approve................. 27% Disapprove............ 49% Not Sure................ 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democratic Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky? If favorable, press 1. If unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3. Favorable........................................................ 42% Unfavorable .................................................... 8% Not Sure.......................................................... 50%
PPP is best known for putting out highly accurate polling on key political races across the country, but we also do affordable private research for candidates and organizations. Why pay tens of thousands of dollars for a survey when one of the most reliable companies in the nation can do it for less?"
