Barack Obama 57
John McCain 42
With the election still four days away, Barack Obama has already received close to the number of votes he needs to win Oregon.
59% of poll respondents said they had already filled out their ballots, and within that group Obama has a 64-35 lead. John McCain is winning 52-45 with those who have not yet voted.
Look at it this way: we polled 1,424 people in Oregon. 839 of them had already voted, and 539 of those people voted for Obama. That basically means that out of the 585 people in our sample who had yet to fill out their ballot Obama would need 174, or a little under 30% to get to 50% +1. It's safe to say he'll win Oregon in a blowout.
Oregon is a rare state where Obama even has a 51-45 lead with voters over 65. He's winning more Republicans (11%) than McCain is Democrats (9%) and has a 53-41 advantage with independents.
Full results here
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October 31, 2008
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SUSA just released an Oregon poll, and it basically confirms you.According to them, an astonishing 71(!!!) percent of votes have already been cast; Obama and Merkley are leading big among them. There is no chance for Smith to pull out a victory, after this...
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