Public Policy Polling

Obama, Hagan gaining state support Wilson Daily-Times
Obama sets high goals to connect in the West Greeley Tribune
Another poll shows McCrory ahead for Governor WBTV
US Elections Briefing Guardian

Obama takes the lead in Florida

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for President are Republican
John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for? If John McCain, press 1. If Barack
Obama, press 2. If you’re undecided, press 3.
McCain.................... 46%
Obama.................... 49%
Undecided............... 6%

Q2 Are you firmly committed to your choice for
President, or could you change your mind
between now and the election? If you are firmly
committed, press 1. If you could change your
mind, press 2.
Firmly Committed............................................ 92%
Could Change Mind ........................................ 8%

McCrory takes the lead

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Pat McCrory, Libertarian Michael Munger, and
Democrat Bev Perdue. If the election was
today, who would you vote for? If Pat McCrory,
press 1. If Michael Munger, press 2. If Bev
Perdue, press 3. If you’re undecided, press 4.
McCrory ................ 44%
Munger.................. 5%
Perdue .................. 41%
Undecided............. 10%

Q2 Are you firmly committed to your choice for
Governor, or could you change your mind
between now and the election? If you are firmly
committed, press 1. If you could change your
mind, press 2.
Firmly Committed............................................ 74%
Could Change Mind ........................................ 26%

Obama takes a small lead in Florida

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 46

Concern over the economy has allowed Barack Obama to take a small lead in Florida.

64% of Floridians surveyed say the economy is their top issue, and Obama has a 55-40 lead with those voters. In a January PPP poll just 26% of voters in the state said they were most concerned with the economy.

The events of the last few weeks seem in particular to have helped move independents into the Obama camp. Three weeks ago the candidates were tied, now Obama has a 48-40 advantage with those voters.

Perhaps the most important development for Obama's prospects in the state is significantly improved standing with white voters. Where John McCain had a 27 point advantage with them right after his party's convention, that is now down to 11 points.

Another factor that could be hurting John McCain is the rapidly declining popularity of Sarah Palin:

Date	Palin Favorability
9/7	45/34
9/28	40/41

Sarah Palin's net favorability with Florida voters has dropped 12 points over the last three weeks.

Initially 41% of independents said her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain with 38% saying it made them less likely to do so. Now just 32% say she makes them more favorable to McCain with 46% saying they are less likely to vote for him.

Full results here

McCrory takes lead

Pat McCrory 44
Bev Perdue 41
Michael Munger 5

For the first time in a PPP gubernatorial poll Pat McCrory has taken the lead.

Here are some of the reasons why:

-He's getting a decent amount of crossover support, holding Perdue to a 69-19 lead among Democrats.

-He's holding his own party's voters at a very high rate, 84-7, allowing almost no bleeding across party lines.

-He has a 38-32 advantage with independents.

-Perdue only has a three point lead with women.

-McCrory's running 14 points ahead of John McCain and 20 points ahead of Elizabeth Dole with urban voters.

Many Democrats are frustrated that Bev Perdue is not giving them any reason to vote for her rather than against McCrory. Her campaign has not had much of a focus on economic issues so far even though almost two thirds of voters in the state list it as their top concern. Those are a few of the things she'll have to get righted in the next five weeks to get the race headed back in her direction- she's done it before.

Full results here.

We've been here before

With five weeks left to go until the general election, Bev Perdue is at her worst standing in the polls yet. Over PPP's last five surveys her lead has gone from nine points to five to one to one again and now to a three point deficit.

During the primary campaign our poll five weeks out from the election represented rock bottom for Perdue. She went from leading by 27 points at the start of March down to ten then seven and finally a single point at the end of the month.

The next five polls after that showed her up eight, then ten, then nine, then 14, and finally 18 before she finally won by 16.

March and September have been marked by similar problems of message discipline for the Perdue campaign: attacks ads that go all over the place without really establishing a coherent theme that hits home with voters, a lack of visibility from Perdue herself in her ads, etc.

She got her act together in April and ended up winning a comfortable victory. I don't think she can roll out the positive pledge again so it remains to be seen what she can do to fundamentally change the direction of the race from its current course. But I wouldn't underestimate her.

If she is able to replicate her final month success after a disastrous second to last month for the second time this year, one might just have to conclude that Perdue and her campaign team like living dangerously.

Council of State Numbers

Nothing too surprising here:

Lieutenant Governor:

Walter Dalton 40
Robert Pittenger 36
Phillip Rhodes 6

We may poll this one again in a couple weeks since Pittenger's on tv to see if that's having any impact.

Attorney General:

Roy Cooper 54
Bob Crumley 32

Crumley's even polling at just 65% with Republicans.

Superintendent:

June Atkinson 45
Richard Morgan 38

Atkinson has shown a pretty steady mid single digit lead in all of our polling.

Next week we'll have numbers for Auditor, Secretary of State, and Agriculture Commissioner.

Full results here

Dole-Hagan race getting more competitive Asheville Citizen-Times

Obama takes lead, Hagan expands it in NC

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for President are Libertarian
Bob Barr, Republican John McCain, and
Democrat Barack Obama. If the election was
today, who would you vote for? If Bob Barr,
press 1. If John McCain, press 2. If Barack
Obama, press 3. If you’re undecided, press 4.
Barr................................................................. 3%
McCain............................................................ 45%
Obama............................................................ 47%
Undecided....................................................... 5%

Q2 Did Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden as
his running mate make you more or less likely
to vote for him? If it makes you more likely to
vote for him, press 1. If it makes you less likely
to vote for him, press 2. If it makes no
difference, press 3.
More Likely ..................................................... 31%
Less Likely ...................................................... 28%
No Difference.................................................. 41%

North Carolina Poll

We'll have it out later this afternoon, but until then here's an update to last weekend's teaser table:

Date	% listing economy as top issue	Spread
1/21/08	39	McCain +14
5/9/08	43	McCain +7
8/23/08	48	McCain +3
9/19/08	58	Tied
9/28/08	64	?