Our Final 2012 Polls

 

President | Senate | Governor

Click column headers to sort

State	Date	O %	R %	O Margin	Actual Result	Deviation
AZ	2012/11/2-3	46	53	-7	Romney +10	+3
CO	2012/11/3-4	52	46	+6	Obama +5	+1
CT	2012/11/1-2	55	42	+13	Obama +18	-5
FL	2012/11/3-4	50	49	+1	Obama +1	0
IA	2012/11/3-4	50	48	+2	Obama +6	-4
ME	2012/11/1-2	55	42	+13	Obama +15	-2
MA	2012/11/1-2	57	42	+15	Obama +23	-8
MI	2012/11/1-3	52	46	+6	Obama +10	-4
MN	2012/11/2-3	53	45	+8	Obama +8	0
MO	2012/11/2-3	45	53	-8	Romney +10	+2
MT	2012/11/2-3	45	52	-7	Romney +14	+7
NV	2012/11/3-4	51	47	+4	Obama +7	-3
NH	2012/11/3-4	50	48	+2	Obama +6	-4
NC	2012/11/3-4	49	49	0	Romney +2	+2
OH	2012/11/3-4	52	47	+5	Obama +2	+3
PA	2012/11/2-3	52	46	+6	Obama +5	+1
US	2012/11/2-4	50	48	+2	Obama +3	-1
VA	2012/11/3-4	51	47	+4	Obama +3	+1
WA	2012/11/1-3	53	46	+7	Obama +14	-7
WI	2012/11/2-3	51	48	+3	Obama +7	-4

 We called the winner of every state.  In the 9 swing states, we underestimated Obama's margin by an average of only 0.89 points.

 

President | Senate | Governor

 Click column headers to sort

State	Dates	Result	D Margin	Actual Result	Deviation
AZ	2012/11/2-3	Jeff Flake 51%, Richard Carmona 46%	-5	Flake +4	-1
CT	2012/11/1-2	Chris Murphy 52%, Linda McMahon 43%	+9	Murphy +12	-3
FL	2012/11/3-4	Bill Nelson 51%, Connie Mack 46%	+5	Nelson +13	-8
ME	2012/11/1-2	Angus King 50%, Charlie Summers 36%, Cynthia Dill 12%	+14	King +22	-8
MA	2012/11/1-2	Elizabeth Warren 52%, Scott Brown 46%	+6	Warren +7	-1
MI	2012/11/1-3	Debbie Stabenow 55%, Pete Hoekstra 42%	+13	Stabenow +21	-8
MN	2012/11/2-3	Amy Klobuchar 62%, Kurt Bills 32%	+30	Klobuchar +35	-5
MO	2012/11/2-3	Claire McCaskill 48%, Todd Akin 44%, Jonathan Dine 6%	+4	McCaskill +16	-12
MT	2012/11/2-3	Jon Tester 48%, Denny Rehberg 46%, Dan Cox 4%	+2	Tester +4	-2
NV	2012/11/3-4	Dean Heller 48%, Shelley Berkley 46%, David Lory VanderBeek 4%	-2	Heller +1	-1
OH	2012/11/3-4	Sherrod Brown 54%, Josh Mandel 44%	+10	Brown +5	+5
PA	2012/11/2-3	Bob Casey 52%, Tom Smith 44%	+8	Casey +9	-1
VA	2012/11/3-4	Tim Kaine 52%, George Allen 46%	+6	Kaine +5	+1
WA	2012/11/1-3	Maria Cantwell 57%, Michael Baumgartner 39%	+18	Cantwell +20	-2
WI	2012/11/2-3	Tammy Baldwin 51%, Tommy Thompson 48%	+3	Baldwin +6	-3

 We called the winner of every race.  In the 10 most crucial races, we underestimated the Democrats' margins by an average of only 2.5 points.

 

President | Senate | Governor

 Click column headers to sort

State	Dates	Result	D Margin	Actual Result	Deviation
MO	2012/11/2-3	Jay Nixon 53%, Dave Spence 45%	+8	Nixon +12	-4
MT	2012/11/2-3	Rick Hill 48%, Steve Bullock 48%, Ron Vandevender 2%	0	Bullock +2	-2
NH	2012/11/3-4	Maggie Hassan 51%, Ovide Lamontagne 47%	+4	Hassan +12	-8
NC	2012/11/3-4	Pat McCrory 50%, Walter Dalton 43%, Barbara Howe 4%	-7	McCrory +12	+5
WA	2012/11/1-3	Jay Inslee 50%, Rob McKenna 48%	+2	Inslee +3	-1

 We called the winner of every race.  On average, we underestimated the Democrats' margins by about 2 points.

Comments

[Mark Rosenthal]

This is some outstanding work, but you really should wait until the final canvasses are in, because that current Obama +2.52% lead in the national popular vote is very likely to go over +3 in the next 7 weeks. Reason: probably about 4 million votes are still out there to count, and if 2008 is our historical guide - and it should be - then those votes will pad Obama's margin over now vanquished former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Ditto for some key states, like Ohio, which may also move up as high as +2.3 when all is said and done.

best to you and thanks for the good work!

[Mark - Accountant in London]

Montana is surprising!