11/27/2012

Our Final 2012 Polls

 

President | Senate | Governor

Electoral Map

Click column headers to sort

State Date O % R % O Margin Actual Result Deviation
AZ 2012/11/2-3 46
53
 -7 Romney +10 +3
CO 2012/11/3-4 52 46
 +6 Obama +5
+1
CT 2012/11/1-2 55 42 +13  Obama +18
-5
FL 2012/11/3-4 50
49 +1
Obama +1
 0
IA 2012/11/3-4 50 48
 +2 Obama +6
-4
ME 2012/11/1-2 55 42 +13  Obama +15
-2
MA 2012/11/1-2 57 42 +15  Obama +23
-8
MI 2012/11/1-3 52 46 +6  Obama +10
-4
MN 2012/11/2-3 53 45 +8  Obama +8
 0
MO 2012/11/2-3 45 53
-8
Romney +10
+2
MT 2012/11/2-3 45 52 -7 Romney +14
+7
NV 2012/11/3-4 51 47 +4 Obama +7
-3
NH 2012/11/3-4 50 48 +2 Obama +6
-4
NC 2012/11/3-4 49
49
0
Romney +2
+2
OH 2012/11/3-4 52
47
+5  Obama +2
+3
PA 2012/11/2-3 52 46 +6 Obama +5
+1
US 2012/11/2-4
50
48 +2
Obama +3
-1
VA 2012/11/3-4 51 47 +4 Obama +3
+1
WA 2012/11/1-3 53 46 +7 Obama +14
-7
WI 2012/11/2-3 51 48 +3  Obama +7
-4

 We called the winner of every state.  In the 9 swing states, we underestimated Obama's margin by an average of only 0.89 points.

 

President | Senate | Governor

Senate Map

 Click column headers to sort

State Dates Result D
Margin
Actual
Result
Deviation
AZ 2012/11/2-3 Jeff Flake 51%, Richard Carmona 46%
-5
Flake +4
-1
CT 2012/11/1-2 Chris Murphy 52%, Linda McMahon 43%
+9
Murphy +12
-3
FL 2012/11/3-4 Bill Nelson 51%, Connie Mack 46%
+5
Nelson +13
-8
ME 2012/11/1-2 Angus King 50%, Charlie Summers 36%, Cynthia Dill 12% +14 King +22
-8
MA 2012/11/1-2 Elizabeth Warren 52%, Scott Brown 46%
+6
Warren +7
-1
MI 2012/11/1-3 Debbie Stabenow 55%, Pete Hoekstra 42%
+13
Stabenow +21
-8
MN 2012/11/2-3 Amy Klobuchar 62%, Kurt Bills 32%
+30
Klobuchar +35
-5
MO 2012/11/2-3 Claire McCaskill 48%, Todd Akin 44%, Jonathan Dine 6%
+4
McCaskill +16
-12
MT 2012/11/2-3 Jon Tester 48%, Denny Rehberg 46%, Dan Cox 4%
+2
Tester +4
 -2
NV 2012/11/3-4 Dean Heller 48%, Shelley Berkley 46%, David Lory VanderBeek 4%
-2
Heller +1
 -1
OH 2012/11/3-4 Sherrod Brown 54%, Josh Mandel 44%
+10
Brown +5
 +5
PA 2012/11/2-3 Bob Casey 52%, Tom Smith 44%
+8
Casey +9
 -1
VA 2012/11/3-4 Tim Kaine 52%, George Allen 46%
+6
Kaine +5
 +1
WA 2012/11/1-3 Maria Cantwell 57%, Michael Baumgartner 39%
+18
Cantwell +20
 -2
WI 2012/11/2-3 Tammy Baldwin 51%, Tommy Thompson 48%
+3
Baldwin +6
 -3

 We called the winner of every race.  In the 10 most crucial races, we underestimated the Democrats' margins by an average of only 2.5 points.

 

President | Senate | Governor

 Click column headers to sort

State Dates Result D
Margin
Actual
Result
Deviation
MO 2012/11/2-3 Jay Nixon 53%, Dave Spence 45% +8
 Nixon +12
-4
MT 2012/11/2-3 Rick Hill 48%, Steve Bullock 48%, Ron Vandevender 2%
0
Bullock +2
-2
NH 2012/11/3-4 Maggie Hassan 51%, Ovide Lamontagne 47% +4
Hassan +12
-8
NC 2012/11/3-4 Pat McCrory 50%, Walter Dalton 43%, Barbara Howe 4%
-7
 McCrory +12
 +5
WA 2012/11/1-3 Jay Inslee 50%, Rob McKenna 48% +2 Inslee +3
 -1

 We called the winner of every race.  On average, we underestimated the Democrats' margins by about 2 points.

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