Our Final 2012 Polls
Click column headers to sort
| State | Date | O % | R % | O Margin | Actual Result | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2012/11/2-3 | 46 |
53 |
-7 | Romney +10 | +3 |
| CO | 2012/11/3-4 | 52 | 46 |
+6 | Obama +5 |
+1 |
| CT | 2012/11/1-2 | 55 | 42 | +13 | Obama +18 |
-5 |
| FL | 2012/11/3-4 | 50 |
49 | +1 |
Obama +1 |
0 |
| IA | 2012/11/3-4 | 50 | 48 |
+2 | Obama +6 |
-4 |
| ME | 2012/11/1-2 | 55 | 42 | +13 | Obama +15 |
-2 |
| MA | 2012/11/1-2 | 57 | 42 | +15 | Obama +23 |
-8 |
| MI | 2012/11/1-3 | 52 | 46 | +6 | Obama +10 |
-4 |
| MN | 2012/11/2-3 | 53 | 45 | +8 | Obama +8 |
0 |
| MO | 2012/11/2-3 | 45 | 53 |
-8 |
Romney +10 |
+2 |
| MT | 2012/11/2-3 | 45 | 52 | -7 | Romney +14 |
+7 |
| NV | 2012/11/3-4 | 51 | 47 | +4 | Obama +7 |
-3 |
| NH | 2012/11/3-4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | Obama +6 |
-4 |
| NC | 2012/11/3-4 | 49 |
49 |
0 |
Romney +2 |
+2 |
| OH | 2012/11/3-4 | 52 |
47 |
+5 | Obama +2 |
+3 |
| PA | 2012/11/2-3 | 52 | 46 | +6 | Obama +5 |
+1 |
| US | 2012/11/2-4 |
50 |
48 | +2 |
Obama +3 |
-1 |
| VA | 2012/11/3-4 | 51 | 47 | +4 | Obama +3 |
+1 |
| WA | 2012/11/1-3 | 53 | 46 | +7 | Obama +14 |
-7 |
| WI | 2012/11/2-3 | 51 | 48 | +3 | Obama +7 |
-4 |
We called the winner of every state. In the 9 swing states, we underestimated Obama's margin by an average of only 0.89 points.
Click column headers to sort
| State | Dates | Result | D Margin |
Actual Result |
Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 2012/11/2-3 | Jeff Flake 51%, Richard Carmona 46% |
-5 |
Flake +4 |
-1 |
| CT | 2012/11/1-2 | Chris Murphy 52%, Linda McMahon 43% |
+9 |
Murphy +12 |
-3 |
| FL | 2012/11/3-4 | Bill Nelson 51%, Connie Mack 46% |
+5 |
Nelson +13 |
-8 |
| ME | 2012/11/1-2 | Angus King 50%, Charlie Summers 36%, Cynthia Dill 12% | +14 | King +22 |
-8 |
| MA | 2012/11/1-2 | Elizabeth Warren 52%, Scott Brown 46% |
+6 |
Warren +7 |
-1 |
| MI | 2012/11/1-3 | Debbie Stabenow 55%, Pete Hoekstra 42% |
+13 |
Stabenow +21 |
-8 |
| MN | 2012/11/2-3 | Amy Klobuchar 62%, Kurt Bills 32% |
+30 |
Klobuchar +35 |
-5 |
| MO | 2012/11/2-3 | Claire McCaskill 48%, Todd Akin 44%, Jonathan Dine 6% |
+4 |
McCaskill +16 |
-12 |
| MT | 2012/11/2-3 | Jon Tester 48%, Denny Rehberg 46%, Dan Cox 4% |
+2 |
Tester +4 |
-2 |
| NV | 2012/11/3-4 | Dean Heller 48%, Shelley Berkley 46%, David Lory VanderBeek 4% |
-2 |
Heller +1 |
-1 |
| OH | 2012/11/3-4 | Sherrod Brown 54%, Josh Mandel 44% |
+10 |
Brown +5 |
+5 |
| PA | 2012/11/2-3 | Bob Casey 52%, Tom Smith 44% |
+8 |
Casey +9 |
-1 |
| VA | 2012/11/3-4 | Tim Kaine 52%, George Allen 46% |
+6 |
Kaine +5 |
+1 |
| WA | 2012/11/1-3 | Maria Cantwell 57%, Michael Baumgartner 39% |
+18 |
Cantwell +20 |
-2 |
| WI | 2012/11/2-3 | Tammy Baldwin 51%, Tommy Thompson 48% |
+3 |
Baldwin +6 |
-3 |
We called the winner of every race. In the 10 most crucial races, we underestimated the Democrats' margins by an average of only 2.5 points.
Click column headers to sort
| State | Dates | Result | D Margin |
Actual Result |
Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO | 2012/11/2-3 | Jay Nixon 53%, Dave Spence 45% | +8 |
Nixon +12 |
-4 |
| MT | 2012/11/2-3 | Rick Hill 48%, Steve Bullock 48%, Ron Vandevender 2% |
0 |
Bullock +2 |
-2 |
| NH | 2012/11/3-4 | Maggie Hassan 51%, Ovide Lamontagne 47% | +4 |
Hassan +12 |
-8 |
| NC | 2012/11/3-4 | Pat McCrory 50%, Walter Dalton 43%, Barbara Howe 4% |
-7 |
McCrory +12 |
+5 |
| WA | 2012/11/1-3 | Jay Inslee 50%, Rob McKenna 48% | +2 | Inslee +3 |
-1 |
We called the winner of every race. On average, we underestimated the Democrats' margins by about 2 points.
